Staying focused

Hopeful eyes watched as the 17^th meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) kicked off in Addu, Maldives, yesterday. Indeed, more closely monitored and analysed will be the meeting between the ministers and prime ministers of India and Pakistan on the sidelines of the summit. Already the upbeat statements of foreign ministers S M Krishna and Hina Rabbani Khar have been widely reported as further signs of thawing of relations between the two arch rivals. Without doubt the Pakistan government’s decision to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India just weeks ahead of the summit set the tone for constructive developments in bilateral relations. The sweetener was the civilised and professional manner in which an Indian helicopter that had strayed into Pakistani territory recently was returned to India within hours.

The lack of cooperation between India and Pakistan is viewed as having been the stumbling block to SAARC developing into an effective regional organisation thus far. Having come into being 26 years ago with the aim of improving the quality of life for the South Asian population, which now stands at 1.5 billion, SAARC has achieved anything but that. One raison d’être of SAARC was expansion and promotion of regional trade, which too remains dismally low in comparison to both global trade as well as intra-regional trade in other regions of the world. When compared with other regional organisations like the European Union (EU), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), SAARC and the South Asia Free Trade Agreement  (SAFTA) have miles to go, despite their being not just the obvious answer to enhancing regional prosperity, but vital to it. Clearly, the opposition from certain lobbies within Pakistan, who wish to continue making the Kashmir issue a stumbling block to bilateral cooperation with India, is peddling a logical absurdity. The government has rightly ignored these lobbies in trying to move forward towards a constructive relationship with one of Pakistan’s immediate neighbours that is emerging as an economic giant with a huge potential market for Pakistani goods and services. It is unfortunate that when these lobbies find themselves left out in the political cold, they resort to souring the relationship via other means, and bringing to a screeching halt any meaningful progress in cooperation between India and Pakistan. The bilateral peace dialogue between India and Pakistan was suspended after the Mumbai attacks of 2008 when Pakistan-based terrorists brought carnage to India’s business and commercial capital, killing over two hundred people. It has taken close to three years for India’s anger and wounds to heal enough for it to restart a dialogue with Pakistan. More importantly, there is a realisation on the Indian side of terrorism being a common enemy and scourge that both countries need to fight together. This was borne out by SM Krishna’s statement with regard to the trust deficit between the two countries shrinking and a need for them to look at a ‘joint strategy’ to fight terror.

It is to be hoped that this year’s summit does indeed help in ‘building bridges’ between the SAARC countries. These bridges of physical connectivity, free trade and increased economic integration and interdependence have been long awaited by the peoples of the region, who want to live in peace and prosperity. It is time the governments rose to the occasion, setting aside their domestic political imperatives and moving forward in realising the dream of reviving the historical grand Silk Route. Given the fragile nature of the newfound positive direction of Indo-Pak relations, it is critical that India and Pakistan keep their eye on the ball to prevent this momentum from becoming another missed opportunity.

Pakistan decision to declare India MFN state-Paradigm shift

In a widely hailed decision, the cabinet unanimously approved Most Favoured Nation status for India on Wednesday. The decision deserves unreserved commendation, and were the PPP government to consider this as one more jewel in its crown, one would not grudge it. Business communities in both countries have welcomed the move. It is clearly a win-win move, which should have come years ago, especially in view of the fact that India granted this status to Pakistan 15 years ago. The fact that MFN is reciprocal in nature, i.e. trade privileges granted by one party extend to a reciprocating party, has meant that by not granting this status to India earlier, Pakistan has been hurting its own potential for export to India all these years. Meanwhile, India has come across as the more pragmatic country. Pakistani businessmen admit to having eyed Indian markets for a long time, especially given the plummeting purchasing power of consumers at home. MFN status for India should prove to be a sorely needed boost for local industry. Currently, official trade between the two countries stands at a paltry $2.7 billion, a fraction of the potential that may be assessed by contrasting this with last year’s Pak-China bilateral trade of $ 9 billion.
Today, the level of trade between neighbours Afghanistan, Pakistan and India is amongst the lowest level of regional trade anywhere in the world. No doubt, this bleak state of affairs is a legacy of the historic enmity between Pakistan and India, and the 30 year war in Afghanistan. In a larger context, the granting of MFN status to India is one of the crucial steps forward towards expanding regional trade and connectivity and placing Pakistan at the centre of it. Without the creation of positive ties with our immediate neighbours, such an outcome would be impossible. Opening up of trade and liberalisation of visas between Pakistan and India, especially for the business and tourism industries, lays the foundations for Pakistan serving as a strategic link on the new Silk Route from Central Asia through to India, with Pakistan benefitting not only from direct trading, but also transit fees.
It is a relief that at least one of the two players perceived to be against normalisation of ties with India is now on board. The Pakistan Army, which has traditionally held the reins of foreign as well as security policies of the country even during ‘democratic’ times, backs the move. The other, the religious lobby, remains obstinately opposed. Religio-political parties have once again raised the Kashmir issue, denouncing the MFN decision as hurting the Kashmiris’ cause. One might ask them how much help fighting wars, creating movement barriers and blocking trade has been to that cause in the last 64 years. They must give peace a chance now, and understand that interdependence of trade and the economy is key to regional peace and prosperity. Bilateral trade or a lack thereof, never has, and never will be an agency to Kashmiri freedom. As for the PML-N voicing its opposition to MFN status for India, the less said the better. It smacks of opposition for the sake of opposition. At least the party should have found a better reason for raising objections than ‘not being consulted’. It would be better for PML-N to realise that such statements only serve to strengthen perceptions of its increasing political isolation and consequent desperation. Such ill advised and ill timed statements could also potentially distill an impression of PML-N favouring politicking over national interest at a critical juncture in Pakistan’s history.
One would hope for this move to prove itself as the first step in a paradigm shift towards a relationship of mutual benefit to both India and Pakistan, and help to dull the bitterness of having fought three wars that benefited neither country’s economy or people.

Friend turns foe

Tensions are high and a relationship that was fragile right from its onset seems ready to crumble. Pakistan and the US are at verbal daggers drawn and one cannot help but worry where the current trend will take us. Statements being issued by the US have taken on an accusatory tone and those given by Pakistan to counter them are of denial. However, it is the extreme change in stance that should really be making Pakistanis unsettled. Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has, in no uncertain terms, declared Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) as a body that uses militants - the Haqqani network - as an instrument to wage a proxy war against the US. He has, in a statement to the US Senate Armed Services Committee, condemned Pakistan’s ISI for “exporting” terror. These are strong words. They are stronger still if you consider that Mike Mullen has been a staunch advocate of keeping Pakistan close as an ally and acknowledging it as a friend of the US, especially in these dire times. It is Mike Mullen who has been at the forefront of keeping the Pak-US alliance intact, especially through his relationship with COAS General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and his many meetings with the Pakistani military commander.
However, now Mullen is at the forefront of accusing Pakistan’s ISI of playing double games. He has unequivocally stated that Pakistan is now staring at the very real possibility of isolating itself from the international community and limiting its influence in the region. Statements from the likes of Interior Minister Rehman Malik denying these charges and nudging the Americans to “prove” their allegations are tantamount to giving them a reason to go on an all out offensive. No one is now ready to believe that Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment has not played a double game with the US and, some would say, the Pakistani nation. Couple that with Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar’s taut response to Mullen’s statement that the US stands to lose an ally by alienating Pakistan - to the US’s own cost - and you have the stage set for a confrontation.
Whilst Rehman Malik may deliver his usual spiel about “boots on the ground” not being allowed, the US does not need Malik’s permission. One can see just how important the issue of our sovereignty was when the May 2 operation was conducted in Abbottabad:. Our intelligence had not a clue till the Navy SEALS had entered and taken out their target. Once boots on the ground do arrive, there will be no more room for manoeuvre. Even if the prospect of American troops within our borders seems far farfetched, there are many ways the US can harm our national interests. Besides the possibility of stepping up drone attacks on more than just directed targets, the US may carry out its own military operations in the border areas if they locate the Haqqani network and other such militants. When we fail to justify being called an ally of the Americans, they will take matters into their own hands. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani needs to consider which sovereignty he is talking about when he issues statements about it not being compromised. The US Congress has already attached conditions to the next tranche of aid, one of them being our ability to tackle the Haqqani threat.
We are dancing on the edge of a precipice and seem ready to fall over. We must revisit our position before we reach a stage in this war where the US looks at us in hostility. Keeping up support for our so-called proxies to limit Indian expansion is a bet we have lost, according to Mullen. It is time we realise that our time for dual policies is up and that the game is reaching a worrisome end - for us.

Americans stopped from entering Peshawar

PESHAWAR: Seven American diplomats travelling in three cars were stopped from entering Peshawar illegally, Geo News reported. The Americans did not have the NOC required to travel from Islamabad to Peshawar thus they were sent back to the federal capital.

The US embassy in Islamabad has issued a statement in reaction to this development and expressed reservations over the Americans being stopped at the motorway toll plaza. US embassy spokesperson said they were aware of the Americans being stopped and the incident was being evaluated.

This is the fourth incident during the past week of foreigners being stopped on the toll plaza because they were travelling without the necessary diplomatic documents.