Libyan conundrum, who next?

The six-month long uprising in Libya seems to be concluding in the favour of the rebels who fought against Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year rule under the aerial umbrella of the NATO fighter planes. Major parts of Tripoli, Libya’s capital city, are now under the control of the rebels. Two sons of Gaddafi are under arrest while Gaddafi’s whereabouts are unknown so far. The western leaders and the US are calling for Gaddafi to quit.

It looks like a long chapter of Gaddafi’s rule has finally come to an end and there are rumours that he has fled to Algeria or might be planning to go south where his tribe resides. How, a lots of speculations in the international media about the future of Libya as well. Who is going to rule the oil-rich country after Gaddafi? This might be the beginning of a new round of conflict in the country. There is the National Liberation Army in the eastern Libya, under the National Transitional Council (NTC) based in Benghazi, which is trying to break through towns, still controlled by Gaddafi’s supporters. However, the NTC and its army have been touted as western sponsored.

In case a civil war begins in post-Gaddafi Libya, the whole enterprise will come under question. The supporters and participants of NATO action in Libya will have to bear the brunt of the following chaos. The stakes of Britain and France are huge in Libya while the US has less to lose as it has maintained a low posture throughout the rebellion and NATO operation in the country. Although British Prime Minister David Cameron has put forward the name of Mustafa Abdul Jalil as the chairman of the new Libyan Authority, the situation is uncertain and it remains to be seen as the following events have not completely been unfolded. It is yet to come about how the executive dissolves. The situation in Libya is highly unstable. There might be a political and civilian backlash once the dust settles there just like it is happening in Iraq now.

The United Nations Security Council resolution that led to an intervention in Libya needs a reassessment. Despite disapprovals from many circles, the resolution had been passed. According to the dissidents of the west and the US, the interpretation of the military operation as a humanitarian intervention in Libyan internal affairs was all about giving a sweet name to an imperialist intervention. The solution to the crisis in Libya could have been drawn out politically leading to a peaceful settlement but military option was preferred. It reinforces the anti-imperialistic views. Libya is one of the few self-sufficient countries in Africa and its oil reservoirs are proven to be the 10th largest in the world. Libyan leadership has been a thorn in the eye of the imperialism for many decades. An uprising in Libya may have a connection with the recent Arab Spring uprisings, which have overturned the governments in the neighbouring Egypt and Tunisia as well. However, the way it was supported from outside has disregarded its sovereignty and is condemnable. After Libya, who knows a similar kind of attack on Syria and Iran may also be in the offing.