An exercise in futility

As expected, the knots and tangles in Afghanistan during the so-called anti Soviet jihad and, more recently, the war on terror and the ensuing confusions felt not just by observers and allies but also the policy makers themselves are not proving easy to undo. The many layers of secrecy have left the truth almost unrecognisable and the heavy investment in the business of deception is now paying its dividends. The conference in Turkey, aimed at restoring at least some modicum of a working relationship amongst the stakeholders, is fast proving to be an exercise in futility.
The Pak-Afghan-US nexus in the war on terror is turning out to be more complicated than anticipated. The three allies have learnt from a fairly long experience that they cannot perform independently in the region. In this scenario, Turkey’s efforts for mediation between Pakistan and Afghanistan to bridge the trust deficit between the two neighbours are to be appreciated, but so far only mouthings in principle do not promise to activate a unanimous consensus or action in Afghanistan by all parties. The standoff between the US and its major ally Pakistan is going to last longer until the Pakistani military feels its interests in Afghanistan are secure. The US in its haste to get its objectives in Afghanistan achieved by 2014, wants Pakistan to remove its support and act decisively against the Haqqani network-led militants who are carrying out attacks on the US-led NATO forces from their sanctuaries across the Durand Line. The Kabul government, too, resents Pakistan’s support to the ‘terror groups’. Afghan President Hamid Karzai reiterated at the beginning of the Istanbul conference that terrorists continue to have sanctuaries outside of Afghan borders, from where they launch attacks on Afghanistan. The trust deficit is evident from President Karzai’s statement despite his meeting with President Zardari, which the Turkish leadership especially arranged between the two only a day earlier in Istanbul, that he would now only talk to Pakistan and not the Taliban. On the other hand, the Pakistani military establishment does not want to lose its interests in the region based on the doctrine of strategic depth. They are highly inimical to the Kabul government’s strategic deal with India, the archrival of Pakistan. Pakistan is averse to any peace plan for Afghanistan that includes India in it. The US wanted to get a draft of a regional security system prepared at the Istanbul conference, which could not be brought up due to the unplanned absence of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from the event at the eleventh hour. However, Pakistan and some other participating countries, due to persisting differences amongst them, had already opposed the proposal for creating a regional security mechanism.
Both Pakistan and the US have huge stakes in Afghanistan. The Pakistani military establishment wants to secure its western border, while the US wants to stabilise the pro-US Kabul government to manage regional politics as per its wishes. However, the people of war-torn Afghanistan should have the prerogative to decide the future they deem is good for them. Through this grand Istanbul conference aimed at drawing up Afghanistan’s future, no breakthrough is expected. The politics of deception is still there. Our GHQ leaders do not seem impressed by the Kabul government’s demand to ‘move beyond words.’ Until the governments in Islamabad, Kabul and Washington unanimously carve out a post-withdrawal settlement that satisfies the contradictory goals of all of them, all these efforts would remain pretty much an eyewash.